President: Stop Giving into Terrorism Fear

Things that help ISIL grow: Substantial increase in indiscriminate UAV attacks Killing Qadaffi, freeing up Libyan weapons cache for ISIL. Where did all those MANPADs go? Very narrow...

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Things that help ISIL grow:

  1. Substantial increase in indiscriminate UAV attacks
  2. Killing Qadaffi, freeing up Libyan weapons cache for ISIL. Where did all those MANPADs go?
  3. Very narrow rules of engagement, barring even bombing ISIL fuel trucks because a civilian might be driving it.
  4. Releasing $150B to ISIL enemy Iran
  5. Paris, Russian airplane, Lebanon like attacks that shows ISIL can attack others
  6. Capitulation of Iraq army when attacked by ISIL
  7. Specific anti Muslim movements in Europe, that make US anti Muslim trends look tame.
  8. Presence of US troops in theater
  9. Lack of economic opportunity for 20 year old males
  10. Promises of religious idealism, free house, electricity, food, healthcare etc – blasted out on twitter, Facebook, whatsapp, etc to unemployed disaffected youth – in mass and daily (90k tweets a day alone on twitter)
  11. A long held vision to reclaim the reach of the Ottoman empire, turning Europe to Islam, achieving trans continental Caliphate.
  12. Radicalized Mosques in western nations
  13. And now apparently reluctance of US to accept, without further background checks, 10k of the 10M refugees running away from ISIL.

While #13 may be on the list, I think data shows recruiting maximizes with Paris style attacks, not Ted Cruz campaign stops. Since 67% of Americans are against letting refugees in (a predictable ratio normal in all past mass migrations in US), if it is a good recruiting tool for ISIL perhaps a leader might work overtime to explain why these refugees are not a threat. Given 67% means more than the GOP, perhaps widen the message. A leader might work quickly with congress to say “Your concerns have been heard, we have taken some additional measures, and we all agree on a path forward”. Supporting the bill might actually diffuse the whole debate.

The elephant in the room is why only 10k out of 10M.

But, #9 likely is the biggest issue.  A demographic boom in the middle east of young males matched with world wide unemployment in that age group, lays the foundation for recruiting youth with a idealistic message.  Perhaps the greatest failure in the middle east strategy is a failure to reform regional ecosystems to promote entrepreneurship and growth.

Source: President Obama: Stop giving in to terrorism fear – POLITICO

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